What if you lose a lot of grants? What if your issue unexpectedly attracts a lot of donors after all? What if you fail to find the right employees? What if the government suddenly collapses? What if you face massive online hatred? What if the grant provider does not keep their promises? What if your employees’ vested rights are attacked? What if you receive that long-awaited recognition? What if war breaks out?
Clearly an unclear time.
It’s clear that we live in a time when much is unclear. That’s clear. And that makes choosing a strategic direction quite complicated. It will be different from making a classic five-year plan, as we often do in the social sector. Today the rule is: the more flexible your strategy, the more agile your organization, the greater the chance that you can continue to make an impact.
Building a strategy in stable times is easier than it is today. In normal times, you look at trends, at your goals, and at the resources you have. And you build your strategy on that. But today everything is constantly in motion. And often the world changes faster than you can keep up with. Sometimes what seemed important yesterday is irrelevant today.
In uncertain times, a rigid strategy is a major pitfall.
Looking for emergences
In uncertain times, you do not look for trends, but for emergences: new and unpredictable patterns that arise when two elements in a system collide. Unlike trends, the outcome of that collision is not predictable.
Enough theory. A few examples.
The clash between Trump and the European Union has many outcomes. It can lead to the EU’s total isolation in the world, economic disaster, and war. But the clash can also lead to unexpected new collaborations. With China and India, for example. Or strong economic growth.
The current government’s desire to make substantial cuts to international aid organizations can, internationally, lead to enormous problems for people in vulnerable social positions. But on the other hand, the clash can also be the cause of the government’s collapse. Both outcomes are very different.
How can you develop a five-year strategy in such an uncertain situation? Well? Not really, right.
Does that mean you’d be better off throwing the policy plan or multi-year strategy you have just made into the trash? That is not necessary either.
Thinking in scenarios
What you definitely do need to do is develop various future scenarios. Scenario thinking does not mean that you have to develop four strategies at the same time. Phew. Definitely hold on to your existing strategy for a while. But do place alternatives alongside it.
Identify which emergences are relevant today for your organization, social objective, and sector. Research them and determine what possible outcomes those emergences may have. Think broadly.
And if you do not yet have a strategy, develop it fully starting from the scenario that seems most plausible to you. If you do already have a strategy, then examine it in light of the possible scenarios in the outside world that may result from the emergences you have identified today.
For each scenario, determine at a high level how you are going to adapt to it. Dare to call your entire organization into question: the services, the programs, the partners, the impact goals. In doing so, do not think only about the impact on your activities, but also on your organizational structure and, above all, your work culture. Flexibility also requires different behavior: how you make choices, how much responsibility you give. But also: how you position yourself in relation to partner organizations. Finally, create a high-level financial plan for each scenario: for both income and costs (savings).
Ready for an uncertain tomorrow
By mapping out all these scenarios for your organization now, you ensure that you are ready when the moment comes. There is a good chance that you will have to let go of some of your plans, projects, or people. Or that you will have to freeze agreements.
Scenario thinking is not a luxury, but the only way to continue acting strategically in a world that changes every day. It is not waiting for what is to come, but being ready to act when something comes your way that you may or may not have expected. Because the future is and remains something uncertain, even now. But you can prepare your organization for it.
Admittedly: it is more difficult than it used to be. And now: onward!
